Ukraine urgently needs money. But the seizure of Russian central bank money is blocked by Belgium. The EU heads of state and government must now achieve a breakthrough at their meeting. The whole world is watching.
December 18, 2025, 9:30 p.mDecember 18, 2025, 9:30 p.m
Remo Hess, Brussels / ch media
Thursday is another day in Brussels where everything is hanging in the balance. Diplomats describe it as the most important summit since the euro crisis.
Both are fighting for the utilization of Russian funds: Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.Image: keystone
The only thing on the agenda is whether the Europeans will use the Russian central bank’s 210 billion euros blocked in Europe to keep Ukraine financially afloat for the next two years.
But in reality it’s about much more. If the European heads of state and government fail to reach an agreement, US President Donald Trump can feel vindicated: Europe is weak and is ruled by weaklings. And Russia’s ruler Vladimir Putin would also be assured: Such a hare-footed Europe does not deserve to be taken seriously.
Three scenarios of how the fateful European summit could turn out:
Scenario 1: The breakthrough
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal says he is prepared for a “three-shirt summit” and will even stay until Christmas if necessary. What he means by that: The EU heads of state and government will continue to negotiate in Brussels until an agreement is reached. The primary thing that needs to be brought on board is Belgium, where the majority of Russia’s billions are located. The country, with its Prime Minister Bart De Wever, is resisting the decision with everything it has.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal.Image: keystone
Belgium fears the Kremlin’s retaliation and is demanding absolute, unlimited in scope and time compensation from the other member states. A limitless blanket guarantee is not only legally but politically almost impossible. But so far the right-wing Flame De Wever has shown no signs of moving.
It is uncertain whether the method “we lock everyone in a room and slowly turn up the heat” will be successful this time too. What speaks for it: In the past it has always worked. See the Greek rescue or the Corona summit, where negotiations literally lasted four days and three nights. And: There is no other choice. Ukraine needs a clear commitment, otherwise it will be the first to be targeted by the financial markets on Monday.
Scenario 2: The total loss
Pressure welds together – or it leads to breakage. Since Belgium can be outvoted in theory but hardly in practice, Prime Minister De Wever has to give in. But in his resistance he climbed so high up a tree that it was difficult for him to get back down.
De Wever has even managed to ensure that there is widespread agreement against the confiscation of Russian assets in Belgium’s notoriously divided party landscape. Russia knows how to take advantage of the worries. Even before anything was decided on the EU side, Moscow has now sued Belgium in an arbitration court and is demanding around 200 billion euros in damages.
The Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni.Image: keystone
Recently, however, other member states have also raised concerns. Hungary anyway, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán openly sympathizes with Putin’s Russia. But with Giorgia Meloni, Italy, an EU heavyweight, has also switched to the skeptic camp. Fear is contagious.
The Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban.Image: keystone
The problem: This time the EU heads of state and government cannot get away with a rhetorical compromise. For four years, Ukraine was told that it would be supported “with whatever is necessary and for as long as it is necessary.” If we don’t manage it now, the EU will not only lose its international reputation. She also breaks her own promise.
Scenario 3: The plan B
There is a plan B. This is: Instead of tapping into the Russian central bank reserves, the EU takes on new common debt. She already did that with Corona. And now she could do that again.
But it’s pretty late for that. And in contrast to the majority decision regarding Russian funds, unanimity is required here, which is impossible because of Orbán’s fundamental opposition. The EU could apply an emergency clause in the EU Treaty. But this is legally tricky.
“Plan B is plan A,” i.e. the loan using Russian funds, was also said in diplomatic circles on Wednesday. The clear majority of member states see it this way.
But: If a total loss really does occur, it could be necessary to reschedule at the last minute. (aargauerzeitung.ch)
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