The dispute between the USA and Venezuela did not remain without consequences on the oil market.Image: Shutterstock
December 17, 2025, 1:56 p.mDecember 17, 2025, 1:56 p.m
The USA’s saber rattling off the Venezuelan coast is getting louder and is having consequences for the oil business. Crude oil prices are rising. However, according to experts, the price increase is likely to be limited. A price explosion is not expected at Swiss gas stations.
US President Donald Trump tightened the tone in the conflict with Venezuela on Wednesday night. On the Truth Social platform, he said that Venezuela had stolen “oil, land and other assets” from the US and called for the “IMMEDIATE” return of oil fields. He also had oil tankers blocked.
Image: screenshot/truth
At a deep level
The dispute between the USA and Venezuela did not remain without consequences on the oil market. While oil prices fell to their lowest level since 2021 on Tuesday, they rose by a good 2 percent to $60.15 for a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent by midday on Wednesday. The US variety WTI cost over a dollar more at $56.50.
However, the price increase cannot be compared with developments in the wake of other crises. In 2022, the WTI price climbed to historic highs of over $128 per barrel in the wake of the Ukraine war and as a result of transport bottlenecks.
The blockade off Venezuela is aimed at a producer from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and should be taken into account, said Swissquote stock market expert Ipek Ozkardeskaya. At the same time, Venezuela’s export volume is not large at just under a million barrels per day, with most of it going to China. As the world’s largest producer, the USA has around 20 million barrels, while Saudi Arabia and Russia have around 11 million each.
The loss of Venezuelan supplies is manageable and the recent price increase will soon subside in the oversupplied market, Ozkardeskaya believes. Commodity analyst Warren Patterson from ING Groep also assumes this: “Investors should keep a cool head.” Ultimately, possible supply risks have been taken into account and other OPEC countries could step in with higher production volumes.
Are gasoline prices now rising?
The oil market generally reacts very sensitively to crises in which an oil-exporting country is involved, and this could lead to rising oil prices, wrote the Swiss industry association of liquid fuel importers, Avenergy Suisse, at the request of the AWP news agency.
The Avenergy spokesman explained that Venezuela is very important for the world market, especially as a country with the world’s largest oil reserves. However, the country plays no role in Switzerland’s crude oil supply, as Switzerland does not purchase any significant amounts of oil from Venezuela.
“If the price of crude oil rises or falls, this always has an impact on the price at the pump, as retailers have to pass on the purchase prices in order to remain competitive,” said the spokesman. Recently, the price of unleaded 95 petrol at Swiss gas stations has fallen moderately. The association did not make any forecasts for further developments.
Based on data from the Federal Statistical Office (BFS), the price of gasoline has recently fallen to an average of less than 1.70 francs per liter. This means it is well below the high prices from 2022, when a liter of unleaded petrol cost 95 up to 2.30 francs.
Trump accuses Maduro of drug terrorism
The dispute between the United States and Venezuela dates back to the early 2000s. At that time, Venezuela nationalized oil fields. Foreign companies were affected, including US companies. A dispute over compensation ensued.
Donald Trump is further escalating the tone in the conflict with Venezuela.Image: keystone
The US allegations against Venezuela are serious. Trump described the government of authoritarian Nicolás Maduro as a terrorist organization and imposed a blockade on oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. The USA had previously seized a tanker off Venezuela.
Maduro’s government finances itself with oil from “stolen oil fields,” said Trump. He also accuses the country of drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder and kidnapping. Maduro, however, accuses the USA of primarily targeting oil in the conflict and of wanting to force a change of power in Caracas. (sda/awp)