Bitcoin had an eventful year in 2025.Image: keystone
December 17, 2025, 11:13 amDecember 17, 2025, 11:13 am
The cryptocurrency Bitcoin has had an eventful year. Despite an all-time high, the “crypto reserve currency” did not really get off the ground in 2025. Now, according to market observers, the breakthrough should succeed in 2026, despite macroeconomic and technical risks.
The Bitcoin price was also characterized by strong fluctuations in 2025. After the halving in spring 2024, the decline in supply continued significantly in 2025 and led to a sharp increase in the first half of the year, also thanks to the crypto-friendly government under US President Donald Trump.
No worries yet
In October the price reached its all-time high at just over $126,000. The increasingly widespread acceptance and demand from institutional investors may also have helped. In October, the total assets held in the largest Bitcoin spot ETFs were around $163 billion, after almost $60 billion a year earlier.
Since then, Bitcoin has lost more than a quarter of its value and is currently at just under $87,000. This means the price is down a good 7 percent compared to the beginning of the year.
However, market observers will look in vain for really concerned voices: “The current phase of weakness is more of a macroeconomic nature and does not change the long-term positive fundamentals of Bitcoin,” writes the head of investment at 21shares, Adrian Fritz, in a comment on the market situation.
Although Fritz is now also talking about a bear market, as is often the case in downward phases, the “historically attractive entry opportunities” are being praised. In the longer term, little will change in the Bitcoin success story: “Supply remains tight, institutional interest continues to grow.”
Not at the top yet
The head of analysis at a Swiss crypto asset manager also remains optimistic for 2026 and expects a high of $180,000 to $200,000 in 2026. Bitcoin is likely to start the new year with an “intact long-term bull market,” says Dominic Weibel, Head of Research at Bitcoin Suisse.
According to the Zug-based crypto company, the peak of the current cycle with the last all-time high in October 2025 at $126,000 has not yet been reached. But the road to new records is still bumpy.
“On an annual basis, the price will end with a loss,” explained the Bitcoin Suisse chief analyst. This is in contrast to many other asset classes such as gold. As a result, a “strong asymmetrical upward profile” can now be expected for 2026.
As expected, price forecasts for Bitcoin should always be viewed with caution. Analysts around Weibel predicted a high of around $180,000 as early as 2025.
Donald Trump’s administration has led to a large increase.Image: keystone
Correction instead of crash
Looking back, it is almost more important to note that neither of Bitcoin’s two correction phases in the current year violated the “structural threshold of the bull market”. The Bitcoin Suisse analysts see this at around $75,000.
This level will continue to be an important indicator of the health and continuation of the cycle: “Above this level, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish structure remains intact.”
Meanwhile, a sustained downward break would be a significant sign of a disruptive breakdown in the cycle. However, the Zug-based crypto asset manager considers this scenario to be “unlikely”.
Disruptive quanta
But when it comes to the risks, people in the industry are not keeping quiet either. After the topic of AI began to dominate the everyday life of the financial markets almost out of nowhere, quantum computers are already being actively discussed in the crypto community.
Quantum computers are considered a potential threat to Bitcoin because they could attack the cryptographic foundations of the system. Bitcoin is based on the so-called Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), which is practically unbreakable for classic computers.
“With the help of special quantum algorithms such as the Shor algorithm, the mathematical problems behind ECC could be solved much more quickly, as Weibel explains. This means that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer would be able to calculate the corresponding private key from a public key in order to empty the account or wallet.
Danger recognized
Older addresses or those whose keys have been used multiple times are particularly at risk. Experts like Weibel estimate that a significant portion of the Bitcoins in circulation would be vulnerable as a result.
There are differing opinions about when this danger will become real. Some voices warn that quantum computers could be powerful enough in just a few years, while others predict several decades.
Quantum computers can pose a threat to Bitcoin.Image: Shutterstock
What is clear, however, is that the threat is being taken seriously: even major financial players such as BlackRock now list quantum computers as a risk factor in their Bitcoin ETF documents. If such an attack were successful, it would have serious consequences for trust in Bitcoin and could massively destabilize the market.
To counter this danger, researchers and developers are working on so-called post-quantum cryptography, i.e. new signature processes that are also resistant to quantum attacks. In the long term, Bitcoin would have to be converted to such processes, which, however, requires global coordination and technical adjustments. (sda/awp)