Ukraine is apparently offering not to join NATO. Experts evaluate the offer differently – and see various possible motives behind it.
December 15, 2025, 04:20December 15, 2025, 04:20
Volodymyr Zelensky is willing to forego joining NATO and sign a ceasefire with the current positions on the battlefield in return for Western security guarantees. The existing problems should then be resolved through diplomatic channels. He said this during talks with US and European representatives in Berlin on Sunday.
Zelensky had offered a possible peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia and agreed to give up his country’s goal of NATO membership. He said security guarantees from the US, Europe and other countries instead of NATO membership would be a compromise on Ukraine’s part.
Volodymyr Zelensky is said to have agreed not to allow Ukraine to join NATO.Image: keystone
There are different opinions about the meaning of this concession. “That doesn’t change the matter at all,” said Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
“It’s an attempt to appear reasonable.”
NATO membership for Ukraine has not been realistic for a long time, explained Logan and Andrew Michta, professor of strategic studies at the University of Florida. Michta said that Ukraine joining NATO was not an issue at the moment anyway.
Ukraine’s partner states have other options to ensure their security, Logan said. US President Donald Trump could, in response to Zelensky’s offer, promise to do the same things the US has already done to support Ukraine, such as supplying weapons and imposing sanctions on Russia.
Expert: Zelensky is moving away from “rock-solid promises”.
Brett Bruen, head of the consulting firm Global Situation Room and a former foreign policy adviser in President Barack Obama’s administration, had a different assessment. Bruen described Zelensky’s concession as substantial. “It is an opportunity for Zelensky to contrast Ukraine’s willingness to make significant concessions for peace with Moscow’s refusal to make significant concessions,” Bruen said.
“The question is what Zelensky received in return for backing away from a rock-solid promise to the Ukrainian people.”
Bruen suggested that Trump may have promised Zelensky to protect Ukrainian airspace. In addition, the US could increase its military aid if Russia launches another large-scale military offensive, he said. “Ukraine needs insurance for what Trump promises, and it needs more than just a word,” he said.
“It needs action, an element that ensures that Trump cannot simply wriggle out of it when in doubt.”
More about the war in Ukraine:
Sources used:
- Reuters news agency