It is the nightmare of all NATO strategists: the approximately 100-kilometer-long Suwalki Gap between Lithuania and Poland. It had a few surprises in store for our war reporter.
November 5, 2025, 5:28 p.mNovember 5, 2025, 5:28 p.m
Kurt Pelda, Suwalki, Silene / ch media
Suwalki looks sleepy. The city in northeastern Poland is located on the strategically important land connection between Central Europe and the Baltics – sandwiched between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and the Russian satellite state of Belarus.
Image: chmedia
The highway, which runs through the so-called Suwalki Corridor, is also important for supplying Ukraine. I keep overtaking Ukrainian tank trucks that are stocking up on diesel and gasoline in neighboring Lithuania. Not far from the Lithuanian Baltic coast is the only refinery in the Baltics.
Poland is arming
Two four-axle trucks with mounted heavy rocket launchers that are driving around a traffic circle in Suwalki provide a bit of variety. The vehicles, manufactured in Poland, are equipped with an impressive South Korean launcher that can fire precision guided missiles – depending on the configuration – over distances of 80 or even around 290 kilometers.
A Lithuanian soldier during an exercise in late October.Image: keystone
Poland has ordered 290 units of this system, called Homar-K, in order not to be completely dependent on the American competing product Himars. The country will soon have the strongest artillery force in Europe west of Ukraine. The target of the rearmament is clear: it is about the threat from Russia, which has alarmed the entire population with its drone flights over Polish territory.
Hardly anyone in Poland has any illusions about what could happen to the country if it does not increase its military readiness. People have not forgotten how Hitler and Stalin together crushed Poland in 1939, triggering World War II. After 1945, the country remained under the Soviet thumb until the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989. To deter a Russian attack, Poland is now building anti-tank barriers and fortifications along the border with Belarus and Russia. The Poles call the work, which also includes drone defense equipment, “Ostschild”. It is scheduled to be completed in 2028.
The flag of the Red Army
It is only a short drive from Suwalki to the border triangle between Poland, Lithuania and the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast. The external border of the two NATO states is protected with surveillance cameras and fences made of razor wire. A red flag flies on the Russian side; a copy of the flag that Red Army soldiers hoisted on the Reichstag in Berlin in 1945.
The flag of the Red Army at the border triangleImage: Kurt Pelda
I walk a bit along the Russian border. Later, as I drive away in the car, it only takes a few minutes before a Polish police car roars up with flashing lights. The officials want to know whether I smuggled illegal migrants across the border.
Economic refugees from Asia and Africa are among Moscow’s weapons in the shadow war against the West. However, most migrants do not come to Poland or the Baltics via Kaliningrad, but via Belarus or the Russian heartland. Recently, the Kremlin has also escalated its hybrid war by using drones and fighter jets that violate the airspace of NATO countries.
German tank brigade
The journey continues to Lithuania. The capital Vilnius is less than 30 kilometers from the Belarusian border. In order to better protect NATO’s eastern flank and the Suwalki Corridor, the German Bundeswehr has sent the 45th Armored Brigade to Lithuania. They recently published a martial video in which, in addition to the unit’s heavy weapons, flares can be seen and soldiers can be heard shouting hurray. The brigade caused quite a stir in Germany – especially in the pro-Russian scenes on the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
Video presentation of the 45th Armored Brigade (Panzerbrigade 45) of the Bundeswehr deployed in Lithuania to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank pic.twitter.com/MP0DGomVDV
— MilitaryNewsUA (@front_ukrainian) October 28, 2025
It is the first time since the Second World War that such an association has been permanently stationed abroad. However, the “Lithuanian Brigade” will not reach its full complement of around 4,800 soldiers until 2027. The extremely slow, tame and bureaucratic response of the NATO states to Moscow’s escalation seems like an invitation to Putin to perhaps try something stronger.
The three Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are among the most active supporters of Ukraine in terms of economic performance, but have criminally neglected their own armies. That is why they are now dependent on support from the armed forces of other NATO states. This applies especially to air defense, because the Balts have no combat aircraft. If the Russians take advantage of this by flying over with their own jets, allied aircraft will have to go up and intercept the intruders.
In the restricted area
Like Poland, the Baltic countries are busy fortifying their eastern districts against a possible attack by Russia. But how far have these efforts progressed? To find out, I drive to Lake Sila in Latvia, which is less than three kilometers from the border with Belarus. First I try to walk to the border because I don’t want to be stopped and questioned by the police again.
But it has rained and the area is swampy. As I zigzag through the pathless forest, I sometimes sink up to my knees in mud and water. In the end, the darkness in the wilderness threatens to surprise me. That’s why I want to try again the next day, but due to time constraints with an off-road vehicle.
Staying in the border area is actually forbidden, it is a restricted area. Latvia has also had bad experiences with the infiltration of migrants from Belarus. But today it’s not just about illegal immigration, but above all about Moscow’s threats of military force. The Kremlin is acting as the protector of the Russian minority living in the Baltic states. Some of these Russians could serve Moscow as a fifth column in the event of war.
Road construction on the border between Latvia and Belarus.Image: Kurt Pelda
The next morning I try my luck again – this time in bright sunshine. In an abandoned holiday resort on the lakeshore there are only dilapidated huts. The first Latvian construction work becomes visible even closer to the border. But they are not yet working on fortifications there, but rather on an access road on which construction machinery and heavy material can be brought in in the future. That doesn’t seem particularly intimidating.
A Latvian penalty order
On the way back, what had to happen happened: a Latvian border guard camera hidden in the forest took a photo of my vehicle in the restricted area. A police car with a woman and a man is waiting on the dirt road on the way back. I am stopped and another check follows. The officials don’t speak English and try to persuade me to sign a Latvian document. I refuse.
The police then call the border guard, who arrive after about half an hour in a small off-road vehicle. The officials discuss with each other for a long time. In the end, the head of the border guard department in the city of Daugavpils, 25 kilometers away, decides to fine me a small fine via email and a penalty notice – for violating the law on the state border of the Republic of Latvia.
The Baltics are considered the most likely place for a Russian attack on NATO territory. However, military experts believe that Russia currently has too few resources to wage a two-front war due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Many observers therefore believe that an attack can only be expected from 2029. However, it is also clear that, despite the horrendous losses in Ukraine, Moscow is trying to build up a strategic reserve that could ultimately deploy it in the Baltics or against Finland.
Such simulation games seem absurd to most Western Europeans. But secret services see it differently. The head of the German foreign secret service, Martin Jäger, recently called drones in foreign airspace or contract killings of opposition members abroad a “new quality of confrontation”. Russia “will not shy away from a direct military conflict with NATO if necessary,” said Jäger. The Kremlin’s actions are designed to undermine NATO, destabilize Europe’s democracies and divide and intimidate societies.