A military expert from the renowned think tank Rand analyzes the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. The most important questions and answers.
October 21, 2025, 04:36October 21, 2025, 04:36
Niklaus Vontobel / ch media
Who will win the war of aggression that Russia is waging against Ukraine? The answer to this question may be found in history, namely in World War II. This is the basic idea of Michael Bohnert, a trained engineer and military expert at the renowned Rand think tank, who he describes as «Wall Street Journal» and the British “The Telegraph”. Because there is a crucial parallel between then and now.
Fire in the Russian-controlled Luhansk region of Ukraine.Image: www.imago-images.de
What can be learned from the Second World War?
After the Second World War, the USA had several studies carried out, explains Bohnert. They wanted to know why they actually won. Which of the different strategies had the greatest impact?
One of the most comprehensive studies was the “US Strategic Bombing Surveys”. The USA examined all phases of the bombing in Europe and the Pacific and also interviewed hundreds of people from the German and Japanese military and industry.
According to those interviewed, the attacks on the oil and logistics infrastructure alone were enough to force their respective countries to end the war, says Bohnert. At that time, the USA bombed German oil refineries in Europe and blocked the supply of crude oil. They also attacked roads, sea routes and railway tracks.
The most important thing was the bombing of the oil infrastructure, i.e. refineries, oil tanks or pipelines, says Bohnert. It was “crucial” in Europe and the Pacific. For example, in 1945 the German Wehrmacht was lacking fuel. Towards the end of the war, Germany even transported tanks to the front, even though they were no longer maneuverable.
Why are the lessons of World War II important for today’s war?
Ukraine has been bombing Russian oil infrastructure, particularly refineries, for several weeks. According to the Reuters news agency, there have been 58 such attacks since the beginning of August. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj speaks of “the most effective sanctions”. Bohnert explains:
“An oil shortage can bring the Russian bear to a military standstill.”
Such a standstill is exactly what the Ukrainian government is aiming for, a spokesman told Reuters. They want to cause shortages of important products such as gasoline and diesel so that it becomes more difficult for Moscow to make progress on the front.
What signs of a gasoline shortage can we already see today?
Bohnert cites gas stations with long lines of cars and trucks waiting for fuel as evidence of an oil shortage. Complaints about cuts in bus routes and empty shelves in stores are also increasing on Russian social media. On the front lines, Russia began losing territory in occupied Ukraine toward the end of September, and Russian troops cited supply shortages as a key reason for this.
And the shortage is reflected in hard data, says Bohnert: 25 to 38 percent of Russian oil refinery capacity is therefore out of operation. And the losses would continue to mount. All in all, there is probably no longer enough fuel in Russia to cover the needs of industry and the military.
Loser? Russian President Vladimir Putin.Image: keystone
How can oil-rich Russia run out of gasoline?
According to Bohnert, it is important to distinguish between raw and refined oil. Both have related but different functions. Russia could export crude oil and then use the revenue to buy war materials abroad. Russia, on the other hand, needs refined oil because it supplies materials for industry and as fuel for transportation. Otherwise it cannot power trucks, tanks, drones or airplanes.
Russia can absorb some loss of refineries. For example, it can buy fuel abroad. According to Bohnert, however, this buffer is not large enough to compensate for the loss of 25 to 38 percent of its capacities. Repairing the refineries is difficult. There is a shortage of workers, a lack of spare parts, while Ukraine is deliberately bombing the most important, hardest-to-replace parts.
Russia must decide how much refined oil it uses for the economy, how much for private motorists, how much for the interests of the oligarchs – and how much it sends to the front. As a corrupt country, it has had difficulty setting the right priorities in the past. It will now also have to fight to counter the attacks on its oil and logistics infrastructure, says Bohnert. “Russia is losing this fight.”
Bohnert sticks to this assessment, although Russia is attacking the Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukraine is losing power plants, says Bohnert. But most attacks would still be directed against people. Russia leaves most of the infrastructure intact, probably because it would need it if the country were occupied. Ukraine also has the advantage that many of its neighbors are able to supply it with electricity, weapons and fuel.
What consequences will we see in the next months or years?
There are reports of fuel shortages at the front in Russia, but not in Ukraine, says Bohnert. Therefore, he believes that Russia’s ability to continue the war will decline in the long term. “The Russian bear is slowly being starved.”
However, that does not mean that this bear will collapse at the front. Russia could hold out, even if it suffered terrible losses. “In the past, countries continued to fight long after they no longer had the resources to do so.” But the momentum is definitely on Ukraine’s side. If this doesn’t change, Ukraine could slowly push back the Russians.
Chosen the right strategy? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.Image: keystone
Could Putin try to win with a nuclear bomb after all?
An inferior Russia could become a desperate Russia, says Bohnert. However, he does not consider a nuclear attack to be realistic. The use of chemical weapons is a serious risk.
“Ukraine should really think about gas masks and protection from chemical weapons.”
Overall, the military momentum is on Ukraine’s side and Putin will have to give in to domestic political pressure at some point. That could be in six months. That could be at Christmas. That could be in five years. “But as long as the fighting continues as before, Ukraine will have the better cards in future peace negotiations.” (aargauerzeitung.ch)