Kazakhstan’s new development phase, reshaping the dynamics of Central Asia, and its deepening strategic partnership with China are raising questions about where the European Union fits into this evolving landscape.
The landlocked country is positioning itself as a rising middle power in Eurasia, modernising domestically, while simultaneously maintaining and deepening strategic ties with multiple global partners.
But this dual trajectory has raised questions about the EU’s role in Kazakhstan, both as its biggest trade partner and as a power seeking to ultimately avoid overdependence, especially on China.
‘Rising star’
The end of August and the beginning of September saw President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in China to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Tianjin and the eighth meeting of the China-Kazakhstan Business Council in Beijing.
Through these platforms, Tokayev highlighted Kazakhstan’s status as a country on the rise, with GDP projected to surpass $300 billion by the end of this year and reforms aimed at attracting large-scale investment.
Multiple initiatives and a more liberal visa regime are intended to position the country as both a magnet for foreign capital and a hub of innovation in fields such as artificial intelligence and green technologies.
Major projects are underway to diversify the economy beyond hydrocarbons, ranging from wind turbine component plants to glass, automobiles and steel factories, particularly backed by Chinese partners.
Striking cooperation
Bilateral trade with China reached a record $44 billion in 2024.
More than 6,000 Chinese-backed enterprises operate in Kazakhstan, investing in oil and gas projects, nuclear energy, petrochemicals, transport corridors, logistics hubs, agriculture, and digital technologies.
Flagship projects such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and the modernisation of the Shymkent oil refinery illustrate how the Belt and Road Initiative continues to shape Kazakhstan’s role as a Eurasian transit hub.
At the diplomatic level, Kazakhstan and China project their partnership through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which Tokayev has described as an essential platform for stability, economic integration, and digital innovation.
Dual trajectory
For Brussels, this trajectory presents both challenges and opportunities.
On the one hand, China’s rapidly expanding footprint in Kazakhstan risks placing the country in Beijing’s orbit at a time when the European Union doesn’t quite know what to make of China, but seeks to reduce vulnerabilities in strategic sectors.
On the other hand, Astana has shown a consistent willingness to pursue multi-vector diplomacy, actively seeking to diversify its partners, and remains open to broadening ties with Europe.
The EU is already Kazakhstan’s largest trade and investment partner, particularly in critical raw materials, energy transition, and transport connectivity, with untapped potential to expand in other sectors as well.
Partner of choice
But if Europe wants to remain a meaningful partner, it needs to move strategically.
That means accelerating cooperation on green and digital technologies, expanding infrastructure connectivity, and supporting Kazakhstan’s aspirations to develop processing industries rather than simply remain an exporter of raw commodities.
It also requires a clear-eyed approach to security in Central Asia, where regional stability intersects with Europe’s own strategic interests.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has framed China’s relationship with Kazakhstan as one of “travelling companions on the path to modernisation”. The sentiment is also shared by the Kazakh president.
For Europe, the question is whether it can travel alongside Kazakhstan as well – not to compete with Beijing, but to carve out a role as a partner of choice in sustainable growth, technological innovation, and geopolitical balance.
(BM)
