For the past two years, Europe has seen significant increases in COVID-19 infections during the winter months. Despite high levels of vaccination and protection from serious disease or death, the surge in infections during winter 2021/2022 overwhelmed some hospitals and placed unprecedented strain on the U.K. NHS [i], which is still being felt today. Even before the pandemic, the NHS was stretched, but now, according to a recent report from the Health and Social Care Committee, it is facing one of the biggest workforce crises in history [ii] NHS waiting lists are at an all-time high of 6.6 million, [iii] and the impact of COVID-19, including the unexpected surge during summer 2022, has compounded the situation.
As data from the past two years show, we must be prepared for potential future waves of COVID-19 as we approach winter, driven by new variants of concern and variation in uptake of vaccines and boosters. While winter always places significant pressure on the health system, winter 2022 is likely to be particularly acute as it’s expected to be the first of the pandemic when there are no COVID-19 restrictions in place. Increased COVID-19 infection, transmission and hospitalization rates will likely be compounded by a rise in other infectious respiratory diseases, such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus and a possible resurgence of pneumococcal pneumonia [iv].
Increased COVID-19 infection, transmission and hospitalization rates will likely be compounded by a rise in other infectious respiratory diseases.
Countries in the Southern Hemisphere, which experience winter earlier than those in the Northern Hemisphere, can provide a strong indicator of what is to come. With a relatively low incidence of seasonal ’flu over the past two years due to social distancing, this winter Australia saw both a higher rate of infection earlier in the season than in prior years, as well as higher overall incidence [v]. While we cannot guarantee a similar pattern here, the data suggest that we should exercise a high degree of caution.
In addition, the Australian government took the decision in July 2022 to expand the eligibility criteria for COVID-19 antiviral treatments to include all Australians over the age of 70 and those aged over 50 with two or more risk factors, in response to the changing epidemiology of COVID-19.
Over the course of the pandemic, we have witnessed unprecedented scientific progress that has given us a wealth of knowledge.
Over the course of the pandemic, we have witnessed unprecedented scientific progress that has given us a wealth of knowledge, and access to effective vaccines and treatments to address COVID-19 on multiple fronts. Although life has mostly returned to ‘normal’ for many of us, it’s important for us to remember that COVID-19 has not gone away, and we must not forget about people with high-risk clinical conditions who still need to take extra precautions.
This summer, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended that an autumn COVID-19 booster and ’flu vaccine are made available to everyone aged 50 and over, as well as people in high-risk clinical groups and front-line health and care workers [vii]. Additionally, as part of a suite of measures, NHS England announced in August that it would be creating an extra 7,000 hospital beds to cope with demand.[viii]
These are positive steps. However, with a potential surge in COVID-19 cases during the winter period, it’s important that the infrastructure is working as efficiently as possible to ensure that testing is available for high-risk patients and that there is equitable access and rapid deployment of treatments where needed, and within appropriate timeframes. There is a limited window of opportunity to ensure these measures are in place to mitigate against the potential challenges ahead. We need to use all the available tools at our disposal to help support and protect vulnerable patients from COVID-19 and other respiratory infections.
A healthy country is a prosperous country — this is important in ‘normal’ times but even more so now and to expedite post-pandemic recovery.
Vaccines and treatments can help reduce pressures on a range of public services over time, support a healthy and productive workforce and contribute to economic growth.[ix],[x]. A healthy country is a prosperous country — this is important in ‘normal’ times but even more so now and to expedite post-pandemic recovery.
With the new prime minister of the U.K. announced, there is no better time to double down on efforts to help protect lives, our health care service and the economy this winter.
This content has been developed and paid for by Pfizer UK
PP-UNP-GBR-1845
Date of prep: September 2022
[i] Alderwick H. Is the NHS overwhelmed. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o51. [Last accessed: September 2022]
[ii] Health and Social Care Committee. Workforce: recruitment, training and retention in health and social care. Available at: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmhealth/115/report.html. [Last accessed; September 2022]
[iii] BMA. NHS backlog data analysis. Available at: https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/pressures/nhs-backlog-data-analysis. [Last accessed: September 2022]
[iv] Amin-Chowdhury, Z, Bertran, M et al. Does the rise in seasonal respiratory viruses foreshadow the return of invasive pneumococcal disease this winter? Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00538-5 [Last accessed: September 2022]
[v] Nazareth, J et al. Is the UK prepared for seasonal influenza in 2022-23 and beyond? Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00503-5 [Last accessed: September 2022]
[vi] Department of Health and Aged Care. Millions of Australians to gain access to COVID treatments. Available at: https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-mark-butler-mp/media/millions-of-australians-to-gain-access-to-covid-treatments. [Last accessed: September 2022]
[vii] JCVI. Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) updated statement on the COVID-19 vaccination programme for autumn 2022. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jcvi-updated-statement-on-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-autumn-2022/joint-committee-on-vaccination-and-immunisation-jcvi-updated-statement-on-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-autumn-2022 [Last accessed: September 2022]
[viii] NHSE. Next steps in increasing capacity and operational resilience in urgent and emergency care ahead of winter. Available at: https://www.england.nhs.uk/next-steps-in-increasing-capacity-and-operational-resilience-in-urgent-and-emergency-care-ahead-of-winter/. [Last accessed: September 2022]
[ix] PHE. PHE strategy 2020-25. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831562/PHE_Strategy_2020-25.pdf. [Last accessed: September 2022]
[x] PHE. Health matters: health economics – making the most of your budget. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-matters-health-economics-making-the-most-of-your-budget/health-matters-health-economics-making-the-most-of-your-budget. [Last accessed: September 2022]
