JD Vance (left) and Massud Peseschkian (right) were against an escalation of the conflict from the start – now they are trying to contain the consequences.Image: keystone
analysis
Iranian President Peseschkian and US Vice President JD Vance are forced to clean up the mess caused by their bosses. The sabotage of the Bürgenstock conference shows how bitter the resistance is. An analysis.
June 21, 2026, 8:15 a.mJune 21, 2026, 08:32
Simon Maurer / ch media
When Donald Trump discussed a possible attack on Iran with his team in the Situation Room in February of this year, there was one prominent voice that spoke out against war with Iran: it was Vice President JD Vance. The Republican himself served in Iraq, and that is probably why he has always been one of the biggest critics of American missions abroad. But Vance lost – and the USA began the bombing.
What followed afterwardsis known. The USA plunged into a war with Israel in which the Iranian leadership could not be defeated and according to According to many experts, it even gained strength. With a view to the upcoming elections in the USA, Trump concluded a framework agreement with the Iranian leadership this Thursday, which was intended to mark the start of a final peace deal.
Vance becomes Trump’s next pawn
But the agreement that has now been concluded is valid in the USA because of the major concessions – Investments of 300 billion dollars for Iran, no definitive clarification of the nuclear issue – as a half-surrender. Instead of explaining himself, Trump sent his Vice President JD Vance into public to defend the deal. Vance tinkled this week through all popular American television showsand tried there to put the ceasefire agreement in a good light.
But he hardly succeeded. Critics even hit out at the agreement from within their own party. Republican Senator Ted Cruz called reconstruction aid for Iran “an extraordinarily bad idea” and said Trump was being “extremely badly advised.” His Senate colleague Tom Cotton also spoke of “a step in the wrong direction”. Most of the criticism was directed at JD Vance rather than at Trump – because the President successfully made Vance the face of this agreement.
That may be good for Donald Trump personally. But for JD Vance this is a disaster. Because he of all people now has to bear the main responsibility for Trump’s decision, which he originally fought. There is a great danger that Trump will not owe his loyalty to him, especially if the agreement with Iran ultimately fails spectacularly. Vance becomes the ideal pawn for Trump, whom he can blame for a possible failure.
“If the experiment with Iran is successful, I will take the credit. If he fails, I’ll blame JD,” Trump said several times – each time trying to sell his comments as a joke.
The Ayatollah is using the same strategy as Trump
At the same time, another politician in Iran is risking even more for a negotiated peace than JD Vance: namely President Massoud Peseschkian. The heart surgeon is the one only popularly elected man in the leadership structure of the Iranian dictatorship. He is considered the most important representative of those forces that have been campaigning for Iran to open up to the West for years and also want to end the war with a diplomatic solution.
Peseschkian’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi led Iran’s negotiations with the USA for a long time. But the agreement is highly controversial within the Iranian power apparatus. The Revolutionary Guards, which gained massive influence during the war, reject any rapprochement with Washington. Many hardliners see the ceasefire agreement as a humiliation.
How great the resistance is even now was shown on Saturday. The Revolutionary Guards declared Israeli attacks on Lebanon a violation of the ceasefire agreement and questioned its validity. At the same time, hardliners demanded Araghchi should not travel to Switzerland to continue negotiations with the Americans.
The new Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei took the same line when he announced that he was actually against the agreement. But he will tolerate it for the time being because President Peseschkian personally guarantees it. In doing so, the Iranian ruler used the same rhetorical trick as Donald Trump. If the deal fails, he can blame Peseschkian for the misery and argue that his policy of opening up has failed.
Perhaps the pigeons’ last attempt
This is despite the fact that in Iran it is not Peseschkian or Araghchi who are primarily responsible for the escalating strategy with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or the vehement attacks on the Gulf states and Israel. On the contrary: the two advocates of diplomacy were already largely disempowered in Iran for a time. According to media reports, Peseschkian is said to have offered to resign within the regime a few weeks ago because he was bypassed when making important decisions. This was later officially denied, but Peseschkian’s clashes with ultra-religious people were repeated.
In order for the Iranian hardliners to agree to the agreement signed this week, Peseschkian had to throw all of his authority into the balance, possibly for the last time. This makes the situation for the negotiations at Bürgenstock even more difficult than it already is. Because if this attempt fails, who on the Iranian side still has the political capital to work for a new negotiated peace?
“A failure of the agreement would be tantamount to a failure of centrist politics […] and would open the floodgates wide for system fundamentalists,” is how Iran expert Reinhard Schulze assesses the situation on X. Trump’s policies would then once again give wings to the radicalization of the Iranian regime.
A failure of these negotiations would therefore have far-reaching consequences than just a resumption of the war. The advocates for a diplomatic peace on both sides would be massively weakened, if not completely removed from the game. What remained behind were those forces that had always wanted to escalate – with potentially devastating consequences for the entire region and the global economy. (schweiztoday.ch)