Protest in Caracas at the end of March: Maduro was arrested by US troops in the Venezuelan capital at the beginning of January and kidnapped to New York.Image: keystone
The online bet was placed on the US cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket.
April 24, 2026, 05:42April 24, 2026, 08:53
According to allegations by investigators, a US soldier earned over $400,000 on a prediction platform with secret knowledge about plans to arrest Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. According to the US Department of Justice, the 38-year-old was involved in the American military operation at the beginning of January.
The soldier therefore used his information on the Polymarket platform, where you can place bets on the occurrence of certain events based on the principle of stock exchange contracts.
According to the lawsuit, the soldier bet a good $33,000, among other things, on the fact that Maduro would no longer be in office at the end of January and that US troops would be deployed in Venezuela at the same time. That earned him almost $410,000.
Guessing since January
The suspiciously successful bet caused a stir in January. The indictment could solve the mystery of which insider was behind it. The soldier is accused, among other things, of violating rules against the use of non-public government information for business. He faces decades of imprisonment at the top.
According to the lawsuit, the soldier funneled his winnings through a cryptocurrency account abroad – and also asked Polymarket to close his account in order to conceal his identity.
Controversial platforms
The prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are currently controversial in the USA. Some states are trying to regulate such offerings as betting services. The trading watchdog CFTC, on the other hand, insists that these are more stock exchanges and sees itself as having jurisdiction. The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) also took the soldier to court.
Maduro was arrested by US troops in the capital Caracas at the beginning of January and flown to New York. He is charged there, among other things, with allegations of “drug terrorism”.
(sda/dpa)