US President Donald Trump looks over at Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.Image: keystone
Under US pressure, Mexico has made many concessions in the fight against drug cartels. But it is becoming increasingly obvious that the US is already crossing red lines. Now there is a risk of a move that will put President Sheinbaum in trouble.
May 24, 2026, 9:22 p.mMay 24, 2026, 9:22 p.m
By Marc Pfitzenmaier / t-online
The fight against drug cartels has determined the relationship between the USA and Mexico since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The US President has repeatedly threatened military operations in the neighboring country to curb drug smuggling. In response, his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum must maintain a complicated balance between cooperation and national sovereignty. But now this is in danger of tipping over.
A few weeks ago, the US justice system indicted the incumbent governor of the state of Sinaloa and nine other officials from his inner circle for alleged ties to the Sinaloa cartel. The criminal organization is one of the most powerful in the country and is largely responsible for the smuggling of fentanyl into the USA. Sinaloa’s governor, Ruben Rocha Moya, has been surrounded by accusations of collaborating with organized crime for years.
But the indictment of a sitting top politician for cartel ties is an unprecedented step in the bilateral relationship between the United States and Mexico. And he drives Claudia Sheinbaum into a corner – because Moya is a close ally of the president and an influential figure in her ruling party, Morena. The US accuses Moya of conspiring with the Sinaloa Cartel. In return for political support and bribes, he is said to have protected the cartel and thus enabled mass drug smuggling into the USA.
Sheinbaum’s counterargument is immediately weakened
In response to the charges, Sheinbaum stated that her government would not provide protection to anyone who had committed a crime. At the same time, however, she emphasized that the charges were obviously “politically” motivated without “clear evidence” and refused to extradite the defendants to the USA. An argument that was significantly weakened shortly afterwards when two of Rocha’s co-defendants – the former finance minister and the former security minister of Sinaloa – turned themselves in to US authorities. Many experts consider this step to be unthinkable without officials being involved in cartel transactions.
The approach of the US judiciary is not entirely new. In 2019, former Mexican security minister Genaro García Luna was arrested in the USA and sentenced to 38 years in prison for his collaboration with cartels. García Luna was a political opponent of then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who was also Sheinbaum’s mentor. The then president had no objection to the arrest.
Things were different two years later, when US authorities arrested former Defense Minister General Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda. The Mexican government then threatened Washington with expelling diplomats. Finally, the US Attorney General’s Office relented and López Obrador’s confidant was able to return to his home country unmolested. In Trump’s second term in office, there can no longer be any talk of such restraint.
“There has never been such a critical moment in my memory.”
What the cases have in common is that the US authorities have so far confined themselves to symbolic anti-corruption gestures because the politicians were no longer in office and they were arrested on US territory. Indicting incumbent top politicians and demanding their extradition, however, marks a historic moment in the relationship between the two countries. Mexico’s former Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda spoke in the British “Guardian” of the “tensest, most difficult situation” in decades. “There has never been such a critical moment in my memory.” But Washington seems to want to go further.
Last week, the head of the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), Terry Cole, told the US Senate that the charges against Moya were “just the beginning”. According to a report in the New York Times, the Trump administration shortly afterwards ordered the Justice Department to use terrorism laws against corrupt Mexican officials. According to the report, Deputy Attorney General Aakash Singh urged prosecutors to base their charges not only on drug-related offenses but also on supporting terrorist organizations. The USA declared the cartels as such last year – which significantly increased the level of punishment and the possibilities for prosecution.
“If this is an undesirable development for Mexican government officials and they feel offended by it, I can’t think of anything to be more indifferent about,” Singh said. “If we expose them and embarrass them, then that’s the icing on the cake for us.”
Sheinbaum draws a red line – USA apparently resists
Sheinbaum has so far tried to counter the growing pressure from the USA with a mixture of cooperation and an emphasis on its national sovereignty. It made considerable concessions to Washington, including the legally controversial extradition of dozens of cartel members, some of them high-ranking, and the increase in border troops by 10,000 men. At the same time, she repeatedly emphasized that Mexico cooperates with the USA, but does not subordinate itself. She drew the red line when it came to deploying US security forces on Mexican territory.
In fact, cooperation in the fight against the cartels was further deepened last year. US authorities apparently provided key information for a military operation in February that led to the death of “El Mencho,” the leader of the Jalisco cartel. But Trump seems to care less and less about his counterpart’s red lines.
The US broadcaster CNN recently reported that the CIA had been involved in several “deadly attacks” on cartel members since last year. The report followed Trump’s statement that a “ground force” was already deployed in Mexico. “You will hear complaints from (…) representatives from Mexico and other places,” said Trump. “But if they don’t do their job, then we will take over the work.”
Sheinbaum disputed the report, calling it “a fiction of cosmic proportions.” But the doubts are great. Mexico expert Vanda Felbab-Brown summarized it as follows to Time magazine. “The Mexican government is slowly running out of things it can still deliver to the USA.”
Sheinbaum is in a quandary
The lack of combating corruption in her party is a central weakness in Sheinbaum’s fight against the cartels and puts her in a difficult dilemma. Moya is a powerful figure within her party and a confidant of Sheinbaum’s political foster father López Obrador. Even after he leaves office, he still has great influence on the party and thus the government. If Sheinbaum takes action against Moya or even extradites him to the USA, there is a risk of a conflict within the party. If she doesn’t, Trump is likely to use this to put further political and economic pressure on her.
The US ambassador to Mexico, Ronald Johnson, recently sent a clear message to Mexico’s decision-makers at the opening of a billion-dollar chemical plant in the state of Sinaloa. Without tough action against corruption, the country would risk its economic stability. “Investments are like water,” said Johnson. “It flows when the conditions are right and it dries up when they don’t.”
His warning was a direct reference to the USMCA free trade agreement, which the United States, Mexico and Canada will renegotiate at the end of May. If Sheinbaum remains on the defensive on the issue of fighting corruption, her country is likely to emerge from the important negotiations as a loser – and give Trump further arguments for his threat of military action.
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